Winter 2026-27 is starting to take shape, and the clearest national signal is not a coast-to-coast deep freeze. NOAA expects a strengthening El Niño to influence the season, while two long-range almanacs also point to sharp regional contrasts rather than one uniform winter pattern.

There is some broad agreement around a wetter southern tier, especially from the Southwest toward the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Beyond that, the forecasts separate quickly. The Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for a mostly mild winter with colder and snowier pockets, while the Farmers’ Almanac emphasizes an active southern storm track, quick northern cold snaps and a messy mix of rain, sleet, ice and wet snow in the Northeast.

The biggest distinction for readers is that NOAA issues official probabilistic seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation. It does not publish a national seasonal snowfall map or predict exact winter storms months in advance.

Key points

• NOAA says El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during fall and winter 2026-27.
• NOAA’s seasonal guidance increasingly favors above-normal precipitation across the southern tier as winter develops, with drier odds in parts of the Northwest, north-central U.S. and Great Lakes.
• The Old Farmer’s Almanac expects a mostly mild winter overall, but colder conditions from central New England through the Appalachians and Ohio Valley, plus above-normal snowfall in several eastern and western regions.
• The Farmers’ Almanac expects an active southern storm track, changeable conditions in the Northeast and intermittent bursts of cold and snow across northern states.
• The two almanacs are separate publications with different forecast methods and should not be confused with NOAA’s official outlooks.

What NOAA is actually forecasting for winter 2026-27

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said in its August ENSO discussion that El Niño is strengthening and has a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27. The official ENSO advisory also noted that a stronger event raises the odds of familiar El Niño impacts, but does not guarantee them in every region.

In NOAA’s latest long-lead seasonal discussion, the winter precipitation pattern becomes increasingly El Niño-like. The agency favors above-normal precipitation across much of the southern tier, with the strongest wet signal in parts of the Southeast. At the same time, below-normal precipitation becomes more likely from the Northwest into parts of the north-central U.S. and Great Lakes as winter progresses. NOAA’s seasonal outlooks are updated regularly as ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve.

That does not mean every southern state will be wet all winter or that northern states will avoid snow. Seasonal outlooks describe the probability of a three-month period finishing above, near or below its normal temperature or precipitation. A single major storm can still occur inside a season that ends up drier than average.

What The Old Farmer’s Almanac says

The Old Farmer’s Almanac released its 2026-27 outlook in late August and described the season as mostly mild overall. It expects colder-than-normal conditions from central New England south through the Appalachians and into the Ohio Valley, while much of the rest of the country trends near or above normal. Its official winter forecast also calls for above-normal snowfall in parts of central New England, the Appalachians, the Intermountain region, the Pacific Northwest and Alaska.

The Almanac also expects wetter-than-normal conditions across much of the West and in parts of the South, Midwest and Florida. That creates one of the clearest points of disagreement with NOAA, which currently tilts parts of the Northwest toward below-normal precipitation later in the winter.

The publication says its long-range method combines solar science, climatology and meteorology with historical weather patterns, current solar activity and large-scale climate signals. The Old Farmer’s Almanac explains its forecasting method here.

What the Farmers’ Almanac says

The Farmers’ Almanac, a separate publication, updated its own winter outlook in early September. It expects an active southern storm track from Southern California and the Southwest through Texas, the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. Its 2026-27 winter forecast says those regions could see more frequent rain and storms, with occasional ice or wet snow when colder air is available.

For the Northeast, the Farmers’ Almanac is less committed to a single snow outcome. It describes a changeable season where small temperature and storm-track shifts could flip precipitation between rain, sleet, freezing rain and accumulating snow. Across the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, it expects cold snaps and short snowy bursts broken up by milder periods.

Its stated method uses a proprietary formula rooted in recurring natural cycles, solar activity, lunar influences and historical patterns, supplemented by modern forecasting tools and climate signals. That approach is different from NOAA’s continuously updated dynamical and statistical forecast systems.

Where the winter outlooks line up, and where they do not

Region	NOAA signal	Old Farmer’s Almanac	Farmers’ Almanac
Southern tier	Above-normal precipitation favored as El Niño influence strengthens	Wetter in parts of the South, with regional variation	Active, wetter storm track from Southwest through Gulf and Southeast
Pacific Northwest	Below-normal precipitation odds increase into winter	Wetter and snowier than normal in parts of the region	Changeable, near-normal to above precipitation, snowpack uncertainty
Northeast and Appalachians	No national seasonal snowfall call; regional temperature and precipitation odds only	Colder and snowier pockets from central New England through Appalachians	Variable mix of rain, sleet, ice and wet snow, especially inland
Great Lakes and north-central U.S.	Drier odds develop in parts of the region later in winter	Mixed regional outlooks, with some colder or snowier pockets	Cold snaps and short snowy bursts with milder breaks

The comparison above summarizes broad seasonal signals, not day-to-day forecasts. Local snow totals and storm timing cannot be determined reliably from these long-range outlooks.

Will the U.S. have a snowy winter in 2026-27?

Not everywhere. The strongest case for a snowy winter comes from the almanacs, and even they target specific regions rather than the entire country. The Old Farmer’s Almanac highlights parts of New England, the Appalachians, the Intermountain West, Pacific Northwest and Alaska. The Farmers’ Almanac is more cautious in several areas, stressing mixed precipitation and short bursts of snow rather than persistent snow cover.

NOAA does not issue a national seasonal snowfall forecast comparable to those maps. Its outlooks focus on temperature and total precipitation probabilities. Whether that precipitation falls as rain, snow or ice depends on storm tracks and temperatures that become much clearer days, not months, before an event.

Why El Niño matters this winter

El Niño refers to unusually warm waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that can shift the jet stream and alter storm tracks across North America. In many El Niño winters, the southern U.S. has higher odds of wetter conditions while parts of the northern tier lean milder or drier. This year, NOAA says the event could become exceptionally strong, which increases confidence in some broad patterns without locking in specific local outcomes.

NOAA’s current probabilistic strength outlook shows a high-end El Niño scenario remains plausible through winter. The agency cautions that even very strong events do not produce identical impacts everywhere.

What readers should take from the competing forecasts

The most defensible national takeaway is that winter 2026-27 is likely to be highly regional. A strong El Niño gives forecasters an unusually clear large-scale climate signal, especially for a wetter southern tier, but it still does not settle questions such as which cities will see the most snow, whether a particular week will be bitterly cold or where the season’s biggest storm will track.

For planning months ahead, the almanacs offer broad regional scenarios. For official seasonal probabilities, NOAA is the stronger source. For travel, school closures, winter storm preparation and other weather-sensitive decisions, National Weather Service forecasts and alerts should carry the most weight as events move within the one- to two-week range and then into shorter-term forecasts.